On Sunday, September 13, 2009 I slipped out to try and make my last ascent of Mt. Mansfield. My plan was to take the Gondola up to the Cliff House Restaurant and from there finish the rest of the side trails I need to hike before hiking off the mountain. I arrive at 9:30 am to find the summit covered with dark, foreboding clouds. The Gondola doesn't open until 10 am so I stick around to see if the skies might clear.
The weather forecast is for partly sunny weather, with a bit of rain possibly moving in for the evening. Obviously the meteorologists went to the wrong palm reader for this forecast, as they often do in Vermont. If you've ever noticed that precipitation forecast are always in increments of 10% ( say 30%, 40% or 50% chance of rain/snow) and never say a 25% or 33% chance I can explain the phenomenon, at least in Vermont.
In Vermont, all of the radio, TV and newspapers have pooled their resources to predict the weather. They can't afford trained forecasters so they have hired 10 well-intentioned persons who know a little bit about weather forecasting. Being Vermont, these individuals are allowed to work out of their homes and still draw a salary. Each morning they awake, take a shower, dress, and drift downstairs for a cup of coffee - organic, fair trade, no doubt. Eventually they drift out onto their decks and gaze off into the sky. After a few sips of wake-me-up they wander over to their computers and wait for the dial-up Internet connection to function. Then they email Office Central with their prediction. If three of the ten say it may rain today - Waalaa! - 30% chance of precipitation in Vermont today. And that, little kiddies, is the science of weather forecasting in Vermont!
At 10:00 am I make the wise decision to forgo Mt. Mansfield today. Instead I choose to hit a bit of low lying fruit on the Long Trail - easy hikes in the rain. I head north from smugglers Notch to route 15 and turn east to West Settlement Road. This public road is actually a part of the LT. I drive south on the road until I come to a fork and take the left branch. i immediately see a sign warning of Tree Logging operations. I continue on another 0.3 miles until I come to a locked gate and a place to park my car (@700 ft. above sea level).
In short order, I climb briefly out of the field and skirt around the eastern edge of an attractive cemetery.
I continue north on the LT for another 0.3 mile downhill to Prospect Rock Road (940 ft.).
Here there is another parking area for those who want to get to the view with a minimal amount of walking. I turn right on Prospect Rock Road and leave the LT to hike back to my car. I make the round trip in 2 hours and five minutes, covering about 4.7 miles - a good pace over the easiest section of the LT I've found.
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